Shawnee, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

772
FXUS64 KOUN 220426
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1026 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1024 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

- Seasonable and dry through the weekend.

- Drizzle and fog possible Monday before rain arrives Monday
  evening into Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures for Christmas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 102 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

After a milder afternoon today, cool surface high will continue to
shift east tonight with south winds returning across the entire
area. Even with clear skies and drier air remaining in place these
winds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer overnight, compared
to yesterday. While much of northern Oklahoma will still see a
freeze with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Farther
south across portions of central and much of southern Oklahoma and
north Texas temperature are expected to remain at or above freezing
as we start the day Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 102 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Warm air advection begins to take place during the day Sunday, which
will result in warmer temperatures with the veered low level flow,
but also increasing moisture, initially around 850MB, and increasing
afternoon cloud cover.

Boundary layer moisture really kicks in Sunday night and could see
some patchy fog as well as widespread stratus develop overnight.
This may eventually result in areas of drizzle as we go into the day
Monday and will look at adding some drizzle and fog to the forecast
beginning late Sunday night. This may extend through much of the day
Monday across parts of Oklahoma and north Texas.

Main shortwave trough approaches the southern Plains as we go into
Monday night and as this occurs chances for measurable precip in the
form of showers and even a few thunderstorms will increase,
especially across the eastern half of Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

By Monday evening, showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop with the moisture return and the mid- level trough
approaching providing sufficient lift. After this first mid-level
trough moves east, another deepening mid-level trough develops
over the Rockies and High Plains as a shortwave from the
northwestern United States digs into the mean trough, and this
will continue to provide lift for shower development through
Tuesday and Tuesday night until it moves east of the area. Again,
it looks like the showers and thunderstorms will primarily affect
the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area with the western third
or so with little chance of precipitation.

Christmas day will be mild and as the area will be under some
ridging aloft between the exiting system and the next deepening
over the Intermountain West and the Colorado Plateau. This system
is forecast by most models to become a closed low over New Mexico
or southern Colorado as it approaches the Plains Wednesday
night/early Thursday. There has been differences on the projected
path of this system with the operational 00Z GFS bringing it
across northwest Oklahoma into Kansas, and the operational 00Z
ECMWF bringing it across north Texas. So it`s too early to get
into specifics, but precipitation chances increase with the
approach of this system regardless. As mentioned yesterday, there
is not a lot of cold air available to be a winter weather event,
although we will still want to watch for the potential of dynamic
cooling of the atmospheric column underneath the mid-level low,
although the current low-level thermo profile would suggest this
potential is low. On the other hand, we also look to have mid-
upper 50s dewpoints in the area ahead of this system, so we will
also be watching for thunderstorm potential in the warm sector.
But there is sufficient uncertainty on the projected path of
storm system that it is too early to get too specific.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Clear skies are expected through the night, with high cloud cover
building in tomorrow. Conditions will continue to be VFR until
after sunset tomorrow night, when stratus development around
03-05Z could bring in MVFR ceilings especially in central and
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Winds will remain out
of the south at 10-15 knots, with gusts tomorrow getting into the
20+ knot range during the day.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  32  58  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         54  33  62  47 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  57  36  65  51 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           52  31  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     46  28  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         51  32  57  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04